Dab tsi yog qhov kev lag luam optical transceiver?

 

AI yam tsis muaj leej twg them tus nqi tag nrho

 

Txhua tus paub tias AI yuav muaj teeb meem. Tab sis qhov tsis txaus siab ntawm kev noj qab haus huv ntawm GPU pawg-NVIDIA's DGX systems, AMD's MI300 kev xa tawm, cov kev cai silicon tawm los ntawm Google thiab Amazon- ntes tau txawm tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam bullish tawm ntawm tus neeg saib xyuas. Ib pawg AI kev cob qhia ib leeg tuaj yeem thov sab hnub tuaj ntau dua -west bandwidth dua li tag nrho cov chaw zov me nyuam tau ua tsib xyoos dhau los. Peb tab tom tham txog 400G thiab 800G kev sib txuas tsis yog raws li cov khoom xav tau, tab sis raws li cov hauv paus ntsiab lus.

LightCounting lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2025 lub hlis twg hloov tshiab cov phiaj xwm tag nrho kev lag luam kho qhov muag yuav tshaj $ 23 nphom hauv 2025-ib 50% nce los ntawm 2024-nrog Ethernet transceivers ib leeg ncav cuag $ 17 billion (nce 60%). Lub tuam txhab tau rov kho dua cov kev kwv yees nce siab dua li AI qhov kev thov txuas ntxiv ua tiav qhov kev cia siab.

Qhov tshwm sim: lub sij hawm ua rau siab -ceev transceivers ncav cuag qhov siab mus txog xyoo 2023. Qee tus neeg loj hlob tau pib tso cov xaj 18 lub hlis tawm, uas yog tus cwj pwm txawv txawv rau kev lag luam uas tau siv los ntawm - hauv - lub sijhawm khoom. Cov neeg muab khoom suav hauv Suav teb -Innolight, Eoptolink, Hisense Broadband- tau pom lawv tus kheej tam sim ntawd tseem ceeb heev rau cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb, txawm tias qhov teeb meem ntawm thaj chaw muaj teeb meem nyuaj txhua yam.

 

Kev hloov ceev: 400G yog qhov qub qub, 800G yog qhov sib ntaus sib tua

 

Ntawm no yog qhov uas nws tau nthuav.

Kev ua lag luam 100G tsis tuag, tab sis nws paub tab. Margins compressed, ntim ruaj khov, tsis muaj dab tsi zoo siab . 400G hla mus rau hauv kev saws me nyuam nyob ib ncig ntawm lub xyoo 2022, uas tau tsav los ntawm cov neeg muab kev pabcuam huab ua rau lawv cov txha nraub qaum thiab nplooj ntoo. DR4, FR4, thiab LR4 variants txhua tus pom lawv cov niches- luv mus rau intra- tsim kev sib txuas, ncav cuag ntev dua rau tsev kawm ntawv thiab DCI.

Tab sis 800G? Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua tiag tiag.

Txuj	xwm txheej	Thawj daim ntawv thov
800G-SR8	Kev ntim ntau lawm	AI pawg interconnect
800G-DR8	Kev ntim ntau lawm	Data center spine, AI pawg
800G-FR4	Kev ntim ntau lawm	DCI, metro
800G-2xFR4	Kev ntim ntau lawm	Txuas mus txog DCI
800G-ZR/ZR+	Volume ntau lawm (GA Lub Peb Hlis 2025)	Ntev -haul DCI
1.6T OSFP-XD	Kev tsim khoom loj ramping	Tom ntej no -gen AI infrastructure

 

Cov khoom lag luam matrix no nthuav tawm lub sijhawm compressed uas ob peb xav tau. Keeb kwm, cov qauv kho qhov muag tau nce qib los ntawm kev tsim nyog rau ntim ntau tshaj 18-24 lub hlis; 800G variants ua tiav qhov no hauv kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd. Cov lus piav qhia txog ib qho kev txhim kho tseem ceeb: 800G ZR / ZR + coherent pluggables, uas tau nkag mus rau qhov muaj nyob rau hauv lub Peb Hlis 2025, tam sim no pab kom DCI nce mus txog 120km siv tib QSFP-DD daim ntawv tseem ceeb uas ua haujlwm intra- tsim kev sib txuas. Qhov no tsoo dab tsi yav dhau los ob -tier architecture- luv- ncav cuag PAM4 hauv cov ntaub ntawv chaw, coherent optics rau sab nraud txuas-rau hauv ib qho kev sib txuas ntawm ib qho ecosystem.

 

LightCounting's Lub Ob Hlis 2025 daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau sau tseg qhov kev txiav txim siab hloov pauv hauv kev sib koom ua ke DWDM kev xa tawm: ZR / ZR + cov khoom xa tuaj ntsaws tau raug kwv yees kom dhau ntawm -board transponder modules hauv xyoo 2025. Rau cov neeg ua haujlwm hyperscalers faib AI pawg thoob plaws ntau lub tsev- txwv kom kis tau los ntawm kev teeb tsa muaj zog GPU qhov chaw-coherent-lite transceivers hais txog 10-20km latency-constrained range sawv cev rau ntu kev lag luam tawm tshiab uas lub rooj tseem tsis tau ntes.

 

1.6T OSFP-XD nkag tau txais kev tshuaj xyuas. Kev xa khoom pib pib hauv Q4 2024 nrog kwv yees li 300,000 units, feem ntau ntawm Innolight mus rau NVIDIA. Kev lag luam kwv yees qhov project 3-5 lab units hauv 2025, nrog rau kev kwv yees hnyav dua mus txog 6 lab. 16 × 100G txoj kab kev tsim qauv muab txoj hauv kev rau 3.2T siv 16 × 200G txoj kab-lub ntsiab lus ntawm daim ntawv tam sim no muaj tsawg kawg yog ib tiam ntxiv ntawm lub taub hau ua ntej yuav tsum tau tsim kho lag luam wholesale.

 

Qhov kev sib tw technical tsis yog qhov tsis tseem ceeb. Koj tab tom thawb 100G ib txoj kab nrog PAM4 kev hloov pauv, uas xav tau nruj heev jitters kam rau ua thiab sophisticated DSP. Kev siv hluav taws xob dhau los ua qhov txwv tiag tiag- qee qhov 800G modules rub dhau 20W, uas ua rau mob taub hau ntawm qhov ntsuas khib.

 

 

Thiab tom qab ntawd muaj lub connector mess. OSFP piv rau QSFP-DD800 tseem yog ib qho kev sib cav tsis tu ncua, nrog cov hyperscalers sib txawv txhawb cov qauv sib txawv. Meta mus OSFP. Microsoft zoo li nyiam QSFP-DD. Google, tus yam ntxwv, ua nws tus kheej.

 

1.6T transceivers: sai dua li leej twg xav tau

 

Kev hloov pauv mus rau 1.6T sawv cev rau kev hloov pauv sai tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm ntawm optical transceiver. Kev xa khoom pib pib hauv Q4 2024 nrog kwv yees li 300,000 units, feem ntau los ntawm Innolight mus rau NVIDIA. Kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb tau tshaj 1 lab units hauv 2025 thiab tau kwv yees kom ncav cuag 5+ lab units hauv 2026.

Innolight dominates nrog kwv yees 50-60% kev ua lag luam. Cov qauv qauv tsim qauv tau sib sau ua ke nyob ib puag ncig OSFP-XD, nrog 92% ntawm 2025 daim ntawv cog lus hyperscale qhia txog hom ntawv no. 16 × 100G txoj kab kev teeb tsa ua rau 1.6T hnub no nrog txoj kev mus rau 3.2T siv 16 × 200G kab.

Cov cim tseem ceeb ntawm kev saws me nyuam muaj xws li NVIDIA's GB300 AI server txee xav tau 162 1.6T modules ib chav tsev, Microsoft npaj kev xa tawm ntawm 2 lab 1.6T transceivers (kwv yees li $ 3 nphom), thiab Meta nce optical module peev nyiaj los ntawm 90% hauv 2025.

 

Silicon photonics: thaum kawg xa ntawm cov lus cog tseg

 

Kuv nco ntsoov mus koom OFC hauv 2018 thaum silicon photonics feem ntau yog PowerPoint slides thiab lab demos. Cov kev sib tw kev koom ua ke zoo li insurmountable -III-V tau txais cov khoom sib txuas nrog silicon waveguides, coupling losses, yield teeb meem uas ua rau kev lag luam kev lag luam wince.

Tsib xyoos tom qab, daim duab zoo li txawv.

Intel's silicon photonics platform tam sim no xa hauv ntim rau 100G thiab 400G cov khoom. Cisco, los ntawm nws qhov tau txais Luxtera (thiab kev txhim kho sab hauv tom ntej), muaj cov silicon photonics -raws li transceivers hla ntau qib ceev. Marvell thiab Broadcom tau nqis peev ntau heev. Tus nqi nkhaus yog thaum kawg khoov rau txoj kev yog.

Vim li cas qhov no tseem ceeb? Qee qhov laj thawj:

Ua ntej, kev koom ua ke. Silicon photonics tso cai rau kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab kho qhov muag, uas muaj peev xwm ntawm tib lub pob lossis txawm tias tib neeg tuag. Qhov no dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb thaum peb thawb mus rau co-cov khoom siv kho qhov muag (ntxiv rau qhov tsis ntev).

Thib ob, scalability. CMOS fabrication infrastructure yog cov paub tab, zoo - nkag siab, thiab muaj peev xwm ntawm cov ntim loj. III-V compound semiconductor fabs tsis tuaj yeem phim qhov ntsuas.

Thib peb, lub zog. Ntawm 800G thiab tshaj, txhua milliwatt tseem ceeb. Silicon photonics architectures, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov uas siv DSP siab heev thiab kev sib koom ua ke ntawm tus neeg tsav tsheb, qhia cov kev ntsuas kev ua tau zoo.

Tab sis -thiab ib txwm muaj tab sis -ib txwm III-V txoj hauv kev tsis sawv ntsug. Cov tuam txhab xws li II-VI (tam sim no Coherent), Lumentum, thiab cov khoom lag luam Nyij Pooj tseem ceeb txuas ntxiv mus rau indium phosphide thiab gallium arsenide platforms. Qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm III-V, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau siab - cov ntawv siv fais fab thiab qee qhov wavelength ranges, tseem muaj tiag.

Kev lag luam yuav zoo li bifurcate ntau dua li sib sau ua ke nyob ib puag ncig ib qho thev naus laus zis.

 

Co-pob optics: kev cuam tshuam tom ntej, tej zaum

 

CPO tau dhau los ua buzzword uas yuav tsis tuag. Lub tswv yim yog ncaj nraim: es tsis txhob pluggable optical modules txuas rau hloov ASICs ntawm cov kab hluav taws xob ntawm PCB, integrate optics ncaj qha mus rau los yog nyob ib sab mus rau lub pob hloov. Cov kab hluav taws xob luv luv txhais tau tias qis zog, siab dua bandwidth ceev, thiab muaj peev xwm txo tus nqi ntawm qhov ntsuas.

CPO tau txav los ntawm kev ua qauv qhia mus rau kev xa tawm ntau lawm. Broadcom tau ua tiav qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub Rau Hli 2025 shipping Tomahawk 6, lub ntiaj teb thawj 102.4 Tbps ib zaug -chip Ethernet hloov. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2025, lub tuam txhab tau pib xa Tomahawk 6-Davisson, nws thib peb - tiam CPO kev daws teeb meem ua tiav 70% txo qis hauv kev sib txuas hluav taws xob kho qhov muag tiv thaiv pluggables. Meta validated ib lab 400G-xov xwm chaw nres nkoj sib npaug nrog xoom txuas flaps ntawm ECOC 2025. NVIDIA nthuav tawm silicon photonics networking platforms ntawm GTC 2025: Spectrum-X Photonics (Ethernet, mus txog 409.6X, Quantity shipping) thiab 409.6X Tb/s (InfiniBand, 144 ports × 800Gb/s, shipping lig 2025). Ob lub platform thov 3.5 × kev txhim kho lub zog.

 

Kev sib piv ntawm lub zog ua haujlwm crystallizes CPO tus nqi lus pom zoo. Meta's ECOC 2025 daim ntawv sau tseg tias 800G 2xFR4 pluggable transceiver siv kwv yees li 15W, thaum lub tshuab kho qhov muag thiab laser qhov chaw hauv Broadcom's Bailly 51.2T CPO hloov siv li 5.4W ib 800G ntawm bandwidth-a 65%. SemiAnalysis kwv yees tso NVIDIA's Q3450 CPO hloov txawm qis dua, ntawm 4-5W ib 800G, sawv cev 73% kev txuag hluav taws xob.

 

Tab sis cov ntaub ntawv kev ntseeg siab yuav muaj teeb meem ntau dua li kev ua tau zoo. NVIDIA tau tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2025 TEF qhov tshwm sim uas CPO-raws li cov keyboards xa 10x kev txhim kho hauv AI pawg resiliency piv rau pluggable systems. Qhov no txhais mus rau 5x kev txhim kho hauv GPU kev siv kev ua tau zoo- ib qho kev ntsuas uas cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau kev lag luam ntawm billion- kev cob qhia nyiaj daus las. Thaum txhua qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm GPU uptime nqa qhov hnyav ntawm kev lag luam, kev ntseeg siab tau tuaj yeem ua pov thawj CPO kev saws me nyuam ua ntej kev txuag hluav taws xob nkag mus rau hauv kev suav.

 

Txoj kev tsim khoom txhawb nqa kev xa mus nrawm. Broadcom tau lees paub cov khoom xa tuaj tshaj 50,000 Tomahawk 5-Bailly CPO hloov pauv thaum xyoo 2025 thiab tau saib ua ntej nws 200G-ib - txoj kab thib peb- tiam platform. Marvell tau txais $ 3.25 nphom ntawm Celestial AI thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2025-piv rau Ciena qhov $ 270 lab tau los ntawm Nubis hauv lub Cuaj Hli- qhia txog kev ntseeg siab tias photonic interposer thev naus laus zis sawv cev rau thaj tsam tom ntej ntawm kev tsim vaj tsev, txawm tias muaj ntau xyoo-npaj.

 

Kuv nyeem: CPO kev saws me nyuam yog nrawm dua li qhov xav tau yav dhau los. Hyperscalers tam sim no nquag siv, nrog Google, Meta, thiab Amazon tag nrho hauv kev tsim khoom lossis lig - theem tsim nyog.

 

 

Suav nug

 

Qhov no tsim nyog nws tus kheej ntu, txawm tias nws tsis xis nyob los tham txog.

Suav optical transceiver manufacturers tau ua tiav kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev ua lag luam dominance. Innolight thiab Eoptolink ua ke ruaj ntseg kwv yees li 60% ntawm NVIDIA qhov nce ntxiv 800G xaj rau xyoo 2025, pib hloov kho thaj chaw sib tw. Innolight tshaj tawm 2024 cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kwv yees li $ 3.3 nphom (nce 123% YoY), thaum Eoptolink mus txog $ 1.2 billion (nce 179% YoY). Innolight tau kwv yees kom ntes 50-60% ntawm 1.6T module lag luam hauv 2025.

 

Cov ntawv xov xwm no qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm AI - ntsig txog qhov xav tau. Innolight thiab Eoptolink ua ke ruaj ntseg kwv yees li 60% ntawm NVIDIA qhov nce ntxiv 800G xaj rau xyoo 2025, nrog Coherent thiab Lumentum ntes cov seem 40%- feem ntau nyiam rau lawv cov khoom siv sib xyaw ua ke ntawm cov laser uas txo qhov kev pheej hmoo tsis txaus. Rau 1.6T modules tshwj xeeb, Innolight's projected 50-60% kev ua lag luam feem cuam tshuam txog kev ua lag luam thawj zaug hauv kev ua tiav NVIDIA kev tsim nyog thiab tsim kom muaj kev tsim khoom ua ntej ntawm cov neeg sib tw.

 

Cov nyiaj khwv tau los qhia txog thaj chaw nyob. Kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws sawv cev rau 86.8% ntawm Innolight tag nrho thiab 78% ntawm Eoptolink's - qhov sib piv uas nthuav tawm ob lub tuam txhab rau kev tswj hwm tus nqi se thiab kev txwv kev lag luam muaj peev xwm. Hauv kev teb, Suav cov neeg muag khoom tau tsim "Tuam Tshoj tsim + Cov Neeg Esxias Qab Teb Hnub Tuaj" qauv: HGTech, TFC, Liantech, thiab Cambridge Technology tam sim no muaj peev xwm tsim tau hauv Thaib teb, Malaysia, thiab Nyab Laj, tsim cov khoom lag luam uas taug kev nyob ib puag ncig kev lag luam teeb meem thaum tswj xyuas engineering lub hauv paus hauv Shenzhen lossis Suzhou.

 

Kev thov hauv Suav teb kuj tseem nce ntxiv. Alibaba, Tencent, thiab Baidu sib sau ua lag luam RMB 165 billion (~ $ 23 nphom) hauv kev siv peev nyiaj hauv thawj cuaj lub hlis xyoo 2025, nce 90% xyoo- dhau - xyoo. Alibaba tau tshaj tawm RMB 380 billion capex roadmap rau 2024-2026 qhia txog kev txhawb nqa kev nqis peev. LightCounting tau nce nws qhov kev kwv yees rau kev muag khoom rau Suav hyperscalers hauv 2026 tom qab pib txo 2025 kev kwv yees vim GPU txwv kev xa tawm.

 

Teb Chaws Asmeskas txwv kev txwv rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siab tshaj plaws tau nce zuj zus. Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2024 tau coj qhov kev hloov tshiab tshaj plaws: BIS tau ntxiv 140 Suav cov koom haum rau hauv Daim Ntawv Teev Npe, tau tsim thawj lub tebchaws -txoj kev txwv thoob plaws rau High-Bandwidth Memory xa tawm mus rau Tuam Tshoj, thiab nthuav dav Cov Khoom Muag Ncaj Ncees txawv teb chaws. Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2025 AI Diffusion Rule tau tsim peb -tier lub teb chaws kev faib tawm, nrog Tuam Tshoj ntsib cov kev tswj hwm nruj tshaj plaws. Thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2025, Pentagon tau pom zoo ntxiv Innolight thiab Eoptolink rau Tshooj 1260H daim ntawv teev npe ntawm Suav cov tuam txhab tub rog-txawm hais tias optical transceivers lawv tus kheej tseem tsis cuam tshuam los ntawm kev tswj kev xa tawm ncaj qha.Suav cov khoom lag luam tau teb los ntawm kev ua kom cov khoom siv hauv tsev, nrog cov txiaj ntsig sib xyaw kom deb li deb.

Rau cov neeg tsis yog -Suav cov neeg yuav khoom, qhov no tsim cov lus nug cov khoom lag luam uas tsis muaj nyob rau tsib xyoos dhau los. Dual- cov tswv yim muab khoom tau dhau los ua ib txwm muaj. Qee tus hyperscalers qhia meej meej tswj cov neeg xa khoom tsim nyog los ntawm ntau thaj chaw.

Rau Suav cov neeg yuav khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov tsim AI infrastructure, qhov xwm txheej muaj kev txwv ntau dua. Kev nkag mus rau kev txiav-ntug transceivers tuaj yeem dhau los ua qhov txwv tsis pub tshaj-txawm tias lwm txoj hauv kev txuas ntxiv txhim kho.

Kuv tsis ua txuj paub li cas qhov no plays tawm.

 

Telecom piv rau datacom: diverging trajectories

 

Tsim nyog sau cia tias kev lag luam optical transceiver tsis yog monolithic. Telecom thiab datacom daim ntaub ntawv, thaum sib koom siv thev naus laus zis, ua raws cov kev xav tau sib txawv thiab kev sib tw sib tw.

Telecom-5G fronthaul, backhaul, metro, thiab ntev -haul networks-tseem tseem ceeb tab sis loj hlob qeeb dua li datacom. Cov peev txheej ntawm cov peev txheej siv nyiaj txiag yog lumpy thiab ua raws li kev tswj hwm whims. Kev hloov mus rau400G ZR thiab ZR +rau DCI thiab daim ntawv thov metro sawv cev rau lub voj voog hloov kho tseem ceeb, tab sis ib qho uas nthuav tawm ntau xyoo ntau dua li peb lub hlis twg.

Datacom-cov chaw zov me nyuam, cov chaw lag luam network, nce AI pawg- yog qhov kev loj hlob loj zuj zus. Kev siv nyiaj Hyperscaler tsav tsheb npav. Cov khoom cycles compress. Kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov neeg muag khoom module thiab cov neeg siv khoom kawg ua ncaj qha, qee zaum hla dhau cov kev cai OEM nkaus xwb.

Feem ntau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam cia siab tias datacom yuav sawv cev 70% lossis ntau dua ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm optical transceiver hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Qee tus neeg muag khoom tau qhia meej meej piv rau lawv cov tswv yim raws li.

 

Peb xyoos tom ntej no yuav zoo li cas

 

 

Kev ntsuam xyuas kev nyuaj siab ntawm cov khoom siv

 

Ib yam ntawm 2021-2023 lub sijhawm nthuav tawm: cov khoom siv kho qhov muag transceiver tau tawg yooj yim hauv txoj hauv kev uas tsis tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo.

Ob peb yam piv txwv. TX thiab RX optical subassemblies (TOSAs thiab ROSAs) cia siab rau cov txheej txheem tsim khoom uas tsis yooj yim. Lub semiconductor laser chips nyob rau hauv lub plawv ntawm cov rooj sib tham no los ntawm ib tug tsawg tus naj npawb ntawm tsim nyog fabs. Cov hluav taws xob ICs-tshwj xeeb tshaj yog qhov siab -CDRs thiab DSPs xav tau rau PAM4 kev hloov pauv- tau ntsib lawv tus kheej cov kev txwv thaum lub sij hawm dav dua nti.

Thaum qhov kev thov nce siab rau AI- cov ntawv thov uas tau tsav, cov saw hlau tsis tuaj yeem teb sai. Lub sij hawm txhuas uas ib txwm ntsuas hauv lub lis piam txuas mus rau lub hlis. Cov neeg siv khoom tau pib ob npaug - xaj, uas cuam tshuam cov kev xav tau ntxiv.

Kev lag luam tab tom nqis peev los hais txog qhov no - tshiab fab peev xwm hauv Malaysia, nthuav cov kab ntim khoom hauv Suav teb, kev tsim nyog thib ob - cov khoom siv. Tab sis lub hauv paus qauv tseem concentrated. Hluav taws kub ntawm ib qho wafer fab tuaj yeem cuam tshuam cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb rau peb lub hlis twg.

 

Pricing dynamics thiab margin qauv

 

Ceev faj txog kev lag luam, vim nws tseem ceeb rau kev nkag siab txog kev lag luam.

Optical transceivers ua raws li tus qauv paub: cov neeg siv khoom thaum ntxov them tus nqi them rau cov ntshav los ntshav - cov qib nrawm nrawm, tom qab ntawd cov nqi erode sai npaum li qhov ntim thiab kev sib tw hnyav dua . 100G modules uas raug nqi ntau dua $ 300 hauv 2018 tam sim no muag rau qis dua $ 30 hauv qee qhov kev teeb tsa (xws li,QSFP28 SR4ntawm ~ $29).400G DR4 modulesntau li $350-600 khw muag khoom, thaum 800G DR8 modules nqi ib ncig ntawm $1,800-2,000. Qhov tseem ceeb, 1.6T module tus nqi tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li $ 1,200 txog $ 2,000 toj ib chav nyob hauv 2025 vim muaj kev txwv tsis pub xa khoom, nrog rau kev txiav txim rov qab mus txog 2027. Coherent tau sau tseg hauv cov nyiaj tau los hu tias "pricing optimization contributed meaningful" rau margins-ib qho tseem ceeb hloov nyob rau hauv ib qho kev lag luam keeb kwm tus nqi.

 

Cov ntsiab lus ntawm tus nqi no npog qhov sib txawv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tier thiab xaj ntim. Hyperscaler procurement feem ntau ruaj ntseg 20-30% luv nqi los ntawm cov khw muag khoom tus qauv, thaum cov neeg yuav khoom lag luam nkag mus rau cov khoom lag luam los ntawm kev faib khoom them ze dua rau cov npe. Suav module cov neeg muag khoom nqi 20-25% qis dua Western incumbents rau kev sib piv specifications-qhov sib txawv uas qhia txog kev tsim cov nplai zoo dua li qhov zoo sib txawv.

 

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm 1.6T. Module pricing surged los ntawm kwv yees li $ 1,200 mus rau $ 2,000 ib chav nyob thaum 2025-a 67% kev txaus siab uas inverts cov qauv keeb kwm ntawm tus nqi sai sai. Order backlogs tam sim no txuas mus rau 2027 rau qee qhov kev teeb tsa. Coherent txoj kev tswj hwm tau sau tseg hauv cov lus hais txog nyiaj tau los hais tias "tus nqi optimization tau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo" rau cov paj, cov lus tsis tshua hnov ​​​​hauv cov khoom siv kho qhov muag uas qhov kev sib tw ntawm tus nqi hnyav tau ua tus qauv.

 

Cov ntaub ntawv margin qauv warrants cov ntsiab lus. LightCounting lub Tsib Hlis 2025 tus neeg muag khoom toj roob hauv pes daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia Suav cov neeg muag khoom tshaj tawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo sib xws: Innolight ua tiav 20-22% cov paj tau paj hauv xyoo 2024, thaum Eoptolink mus txog 33%. Los ntawm qhov sib txawv, Coherent thiab Lumentum-ob qho tib si tab tom hloov pauv kev coj noj coj ua- rub tus neeg muag khoom sab hnub poob mus rau thaj chaw tsis zoo hauv xyoo tas los no. Kev lag luam- qhov nruab nrab qhov nruab nrab tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 25-35% nyob hauv qab ntawm 45-60% zoo ib yam hauv lwm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, uas cuam tshuam txog kev sib tw siv zog thiab cov peev txheej ntawm kev txhim kho tiam tom ntej.

 

 

Tag nrho cov paj laum rau cov neeg muab khoom lag luam feem ntau yog li ntawm 25% mus rau 35%, tab sis qhov no txawv ntawm cov khoom sib xyaw thiab cov neeg siv khoom ntau. Cov npoo siab tshaj plaws tau nce mus rau thaum ntxov- txav cov khoom ntawm cov qib ceev tshiab, tom qab ntawd compress raws li cov thev naus laus zis loj tuaj.

Qhov no tsim cov nyhuv treadmill: cov neeg muag khoom yuav tsum tsis tu ncua nqis peev hauv - tiam tom ntej kev txhim kho tsuas yog khaws cov nyiaj tau los, cia nws nyob ib leeg. Kev siv R&D muaj ntau heev -cov tuam txhab ua lag luam siv 10-15% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev txhim kho, qee zaum ntau dua.

Cov tuam txhab uas poob qab thev naus laus zis pom lawv tus kheej sib tw ntawm tus nqi hauv cov neeg laus, uas yog txoj haujlwm nyuaj. Qhov no dynamic drives kev lag luam consolidation nyob rau lub sij hawm.

 

Kev xav kawg

 

Lub khw muag khoom optical transceiver zaum ntawm qhov taw tes tsis txaus ntseeg -ib lub sijhawm ntawd qhov kev xav uas coj kev lag luam rau kaum xyoo tsis siv lawm. AI hloov cov duab thov. Silicon photonics hloov cov duab thev naus laus zis. Geopolitics hloov cov duab saw khoom.

Rau cov tub ua lag luam, qhov no ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo thiab kev pheej hmoo. Rau cov engineers, nws txhais tau tias ua haujlwm ntawm cov teeb meem tshiab tiag tiag es tsis yog kev txhim kho ntxiv. Rau cov hyperscalers thiab cov neeg nqa khoom uas thaum kawg yuav cov khoom no, nws txhais tau tias kev taug qab cov chaw muag khoom thaj chaw uas muaj zog dua thiab muaj kev kwv yees tsawg dua li qhov lawv xav tau.

Tsis muaj leej twg paub raws nraim li cas qhov no daws tau. Tab sis nws yuav nthuav mus saib.